If USMCA is not renewed, analysts expect uncertainty for businesses

June 28, 2026 - 18:19

US President Donald Trump has warned he would "rather not have" the USMCA free trade agreement ahead of its scheduled July 1 review, sending a wave of concern through North American business circles. Analysts say that if the pact is not renewed, companies across the continent will face a period of deep uncertainty, potentially disrupting supply chains and investment plans that have relied on the deal's framework since it replaced NAFTA.

The USMCA, which governs trade between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, is up for a joint review this summer. Trump's blunt remarks signal a possible willingness to let the agreement collapse, a move that would remove the tariff-free and regulatory stability that manufacturers, farmers, and service providers have counted on for years. Without the deal, businesses would likely revert to World Trade Organization rules, which carry higher tariffs and less predictable dispute resolution.

Economists warn that the resulting chaos could slow cross-border trade, raise costs for consumers, and discourage long-term capital spending. The automotive industry, which relies on tightly integrated supply chains across the three countries, would be especially hard hit. For now, negotiators have little time to bridge the gap between Trump's demands and the interests of Mexico and Canada, leaving companies to brace for a potentially rocky second half of the year.